Thought I’d follow up on my USD/SGD trade from the weekend. The pair gaped up on Sunday afternoon offering some longs around the channel breakout but is having a lot of trouble breaking through resistance at $1.5240.

I actually missed the long entry because I put my entry order near the bottom of the gap. I figured it would fill the gap before moving further but it didn’t, oh well. If I were long, I’d at least consider a break even stop as there is no sense in letting a winner turn into a looser ahead of the upcoming event risk.

Tomorrow’s fundamental docket for the U.S. Dollar includes ADP Payroll, ISM Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales which may help drive this pair out of its range but it may not be favorable to the position.

Best of luck,

Ryan

Today was a cliche day in Seattle, cold and rainy. I saw it as an opportunity to partake in a O’Keefe family tradition, Ivar’s Fish Bar on Pier 54. If Seattle is known for anything it would be rain, coffee and Ivar’s Fish Bar on the waterfront. When I brought my Wife to visit Seattle for the first time we drove straight from the airport to Ivar’s, it’s that good.

Since opening in 1938 Ivar Haglund’s fish bar has become a Seattle institution.  My entire life I’ve measured other fish-n-chips against the Ivar’s standard and nothing comes close to their Halibut-n-Chips.

I ate out on the pier. It was raining, windy, 39 degrees and I loved every minute of it. If you come to Seattle, do not miss Ivar’s or you’ll miss out on something special.

If you let me know your coming, I’ll meet you there!

Is the USD/SGD Preparing a Breakout?

Here is a currency pair I’ll wager many of you don’t look at regularly but a nice channel is shaping up on the USD/SGD which may breakout soon. On the daily chart we see a head & shoulders pattern which broke down about two weeks ago followed by a consolidation range. The range can break in either direction but the overall trend on the daily chart appears to be up and Friday closed with a bullish engulfing candle giving me a bias to the uptrend continuing. The pair is currently consolidating on the 38.2% Fibonacci level within the uptrend between $1.4149 and $1.5575.

(Click the charts for a larger view)

As of Friday’s close, the 60 minute chart was bunching up near the top of this channel. Should the pair break out to the upside, I think a decent technical price target could be $1.5300. We will have to wait and see what happens.

What do you think? Share your opinion on this trade with us by clicking here, I’d love to hear from you.

About the Book

I appreciate the interest in my book through all the comments and email, I’m very excited about it. Peter asked if I had any idea when it would be out and I’d like to address that question. Currently we are still in the writing and editing phase. I don’t believe the book will make it to print until late this year or early next year.  I will keep you updated via this blog as progress is made so stay tuned.

I’m writing this book for the struggling trader or those who work a day job. This is not an academic book. I don’t explain what a pip is, how the FX market got started or what the economic drivers of XZY currency are.  My goal is to give you actionable trading advice from my own experience with some methodologies you can make your own and hopefully get you on track to profitable trading.

-Ryan

Photo Credit: anneh632

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle.   Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You could loose some or all of your investment capital, your shirt, shoes and possibly end up sleeping in a rusty old van down by the river. If you do, it’s not my fault you dig?

The Pound is testing last week’s triangle consolidation breakout this evening which begs the question, is this pair headed lower?

I feel like the resistance between $1.4060 and $1.4160 is muddy and I’d like to see a bear day turn this pair around before looking for further sells along resistance but still something to watch.

Don’t forget the FOMC statement is Wednesday.

I’ve posted a few thoughts on USD/CAD over at my FX Street blog. You can visit that post by following this link if you are interested:

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/

-Ryan

Well I didn’t get the USD/JPY long I wanted in my previous post but in the spirit of flexibility I placed a sell entry order at $98.67 after the channel broke to the downside. I had the stop at $99 with a target of around $97.50.

Since I was selling in a Daily chart uptrend when I was about 50 points in the money I moved my stop to break even and forgot about the trade until today. Figures I’d get taken out a break even before the 200 point sell off. From the looks of it though, I may have been tagged out at $99 anyway. The high on this feed was $99.92, not sure what my broker’s high was but that is awfully close with spread.

Discretionary trading is really about managing risk above all else and although USD/JPY foiled me yet again, at least I didn’t give anybody some of my capital.

I hope you’re having a great trading week!

Ryan

So tonight I’m watching USD/JPY ahead of the Asian session and I’m thinking it is the moment of truth for this pair. We have a clean channel consolidation pattern building ahead of overnight trading while on the daily chart the pair is just below yesterdays high. All of this is adding up to a potential breakout in my opinion, hopefully tonight because I’d hate to stay up late for nothing.

This pair faked me out last week when I posted at FXStreet.com it had technical support to run all the way to the voodoo number of $100, perhaps it is ready to make another run?

In my opinion there are two valid ways to trade this; first is to get long on a bullish bounce near the bottom of the channel or second, wait for a breakout / pull back near the top. Either way risk can be limited by the boundaries of the channel.

How Loonie Can You Get?

If your intersted, I posted my thoughts on the USD/CAD test of $1.30 over on my FXStreet.com blog. You can visit it at this url:

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/

Where Have You Been?

Despite my best efforts, 2009 has been pretty slow on my blog but there is a really exciting reason for that. I am in the process of writing a book for Wiley & Sons which should be wrapped up shortly. My personal blog has suffered some neglect while I pour my effort into this book. I’ll share more details as we get closer to production but I will say I had no intentions of writing the same old trading book you’ve bought five times over!

Best of luck this week!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle.   Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You could loose some or all of your investment capital, your shirt, shoes and possibly end up sleeping in a rusty old van down by the river. If you do, it’s not my fault you dig?

I wanted to share a link to a Petition against H.R. 1068 available at RallyCongress.com. You can always write your representative’s office but perhaps we can get some added support against this bill through RallyCongress.com as well.

Here is the link:

http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congres-to-block-trader-tax

100th Post

I didn’t notice until today but my last post about DeFazio and H.R. 1068 was my 100th post. On one hand I wish I had posted something fun or trading related for this milestone but on the other hand I’m glad it was spent bringing awareness to a threat against the bottom line of all traders.

Best of luck for the upcoming trading week!

Ryan