Quite a mixed bag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average today. We saw a late day rally fueled by some positive data out of the Fed and American Express among others ultimately ending up 109 points. It appears the positive outlook continues into the Asian markets as the Nikkei is up 253 points at the time of writing this post.  A positive outlook may help fuel the carry trade through the rest of the week. Combined with a juicy daily chart hammer along support I’m considering a small long in USD/JPY over the next few days. The U.S. economic risk event calendar is rather sparse tomorrow (Thursday) however we are still awaiting the results of the U.S. bank stress tests which could be a game changer, who knows how the market will react to that news.

Technically speaking, the hammer corresponds with a resistance layer that USD/JPY broke through a couple of weeks ago but had not tested as support until today. Looking at the hourly chart, the demand level appears to be between $98.60 and $98.10. I’ll be watching for an opportunity to go long as price moves in and out, around that level while tomorrow plays out. If I do get long, I’m going to shoot for a profit target around $100.71.

How Much Does a Sam Adams Cost in Washington?

I was reading comments tonight and saw Radek had asked:

So how much is a Sam Adams there in your place?

Very good question, unfortunately I don’t know the answer. I buy Sam Adams when the seasonal cases come out at Costco. I don’t recall the price of a case but their Winter brews are my favorite. Perhaps I should change my donation link to say “Buy Ryan a Case of Sam Adams”!

There are only two beers my Wife and I are fond of. One is Sam Adams and the other is a local brew named Mac & Jack’s which unfortunately can’t be bought retail unless you want a keg so we are stuck with ordering it at local restaurants.

Best of luck,

Ryan

When a poker player with a superior hand is beaten by an opponent who is praying for a miracle on the river card it is known as a bad beat. Poker players understand that once in a while the odds are going to align against them and take them out even when they start with a superior hand.

Traders have their own version of the bad beat known as the stop gun, tick out or whatever they want to call it. Usually the story talks about how their stop was taken out moments before the market moved a gazillion points in their favor. Cry me a river.

Professional traders understand that occasionally stops suck and you’re taken out moments before the big move but do we care? No!

The reason we have risk control to begin with is to stop the blood letting before we run out of blood. The moment your stop is triggered there is no way you could have known the very next tick would start a turn in your favor.

The trader who tortures them self with what could have, should have or might have been is committing a horrible emotional blunder. You must avoid succumbing to bad beat syndrome because afflicted traders begin to move their stops when the next trade moves against them. They are convinced the trade will turn around just like the last one only this time they end up bleeding out their account.

This hasn’t happened to me in a while which I’m grateful for but today I was tagged out by about 20 points literally minutes before a 225 point rally in my favor. Every poker player or trader has a bad beat story and frankly nobody wants to hear them.

Today I took GBP/USD long for +118 points and was stopped (not cheated) out of a long GBP/CHF for -76 points but if you ask me, both were winners.

I don’t plan to trade tomorrow, I’ll wait for Non Farm Payroll Friday and trade post report if the right opportunity comes up.

If your interested in a channel I’m watching on EUR/USD check out my FX Street blog for all the details by visiting me at: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/dayjobtrader/

Best of luck!

Ryan