Howdy Folks!

I’m really pleased to be finished with my book and back to blogging. I thought we could bring back the weekly video to use as an educational tool each Friday. I used a higher resolution and changed some audio settings for a higher quality video. Let me know your thoughts by dropping me an email or commenting on this post. It was certainly an interesting trading week, I hope you caught some pips! The RBA suprised us with a rate hike fueling a rally that finished the week around 200 pips higher while earnings season left questions about whether an economic recovery is really underway. In the video, I call the AUD/USD long a “no brainer” trade although I personally wasn’t paying enough attention Monday night and missed out on the easy pips. I brought the trade up so hopefully you won’t miss out when something like this occurs in the future. Patience turned out to be profitable and I was able to sell GBP/USD after the BoE said nothing of interest Thursday morning, details are in the video.

Have a great weekend!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Tonight I’m pondering the future of kiwi / dollar. I’m confident kiwis are tasty and one of my favorite fruits, but I’m not as confident on the future of NZD/USD. The fruit flavored currency caught another rally today after better than expected business confidence data and a strong equity market. Unfortunately for Kiwi there are no further fundamental reports scheduled this week which could leave it open to event risk from the United States. The demand for kiwi has been impressive. The currency has gained nearly 2,500 pips over seven straight months without a pause. I’m curious to see if kiwi builds a quiet top around $0.74, breaks it quickly or is rejected quickly. The $0.74 handle looks like pretty decent resistance on the monthly chart.

I’m starting to become slightly bias that longs at this price level may not be the greatest idea in the world. Consider what might happen if the market sells off from either the $0.74 or $0.73 levels; do you really want to step in front of what could be a hefty amount of longs unwinding? It is something to consider when NZD/USD is sitting precariously on top of a 2,500 pip, seven month long rally. On the other hand last week closed with an inside day pattern on the weekly chart. This could be a sign NZD/USD is preparing a volatility break higher. Until I see $0.73 fall and provide support convincingly the inside day could be a break play in either direction.

Just my $0.02 for the night.

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,

I hope you had a great weekend! I spent my Sunday afternoon in a corn maze which was a hoot! The market open wasn’t terribly exciting. I didn’t see any interesting gaps or shocking weekend news that I’m aware of. Many of the major pairs are consolidating after their large runs over the last two weeks. NZD/USD printed an inside bar on it’s weekly chart which might be interesting to watch over the next week or so, I wonder if this pair is finally running out of steam. There is some interesting price action on EUR/USD and USD/CHF that is worth talking about.

USD/CHF

$1.06 finally gave up support four weeks ago after a long battle with sellers that lasted nearly the entire 3rd quarter. I think from a resistance perspective this level is now an interesting target for the market to test. I have no idea when it will reach $1.06 or if it even will but it is something to watch for over the next few trading weeks. If you measure Fibonacci ratios from the consolidation high of $1.1025 to the breakout low of $1.1090 you’ll see 50% falls right at $1.06. If we see a test of resistance and a turn lower this currency pair may be headed to the 150% extension of $0.9770. Only time will tell and price action will always lead the way. In the short term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bargain day opportunity bid this pair up to $1.06.

EUR/USD

Above $1.48 Euro has been held back by resistance, but I wonder how long that will last. The breakout above $1.44 has yet to be tested as support and I suspect that may happen soon. If we draw Fibonacci ratios using the low preceding the breakout to the high around $1.48 we see 61.8% fall just above $1.44. This corresponds with broken resistance on the daily chart which may become support as it is tested from above. The bias I have through the use of an HMA would potentially be to sell this pair if a bargain day opportunity appeared but only time will tell what is going to happen. These are rough Sunday thoughts and I’ll wait for Monday’s close to evaluate the market again.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks!

I hope you have booked a bunch of pips since my last blog post. My last post said I would start blogging again on August 2nd; swing and a miss. I meant October 2nd, yeah, that’s it…really I did! Today I am back on the blog with some fantastic news; my book is finished! The manuscript has been sent to post production for final work but the writing phase is done! It certainly took me longer than I expected to finish, but the result is a book I believe will help you learn to trade, whether you have a day job or not. I will keep you updated as the book gets closer to being released. I’m also looking forward to blogging again! This blog has been stale for way to long and it is time to make some changes. I’m going to catch my breath for a few days, then I’ll clean off the dust, add some new stuff and get back to a regular posting schedule.

Have a great weekend!

Ryan